Market Profiles Key differences that drive the numbers
Option A — Premium Market
Birmingham
Median HHI
$110k+
Avg Restaurant Lease
$26–34/sf
Dine-In Check Avg
$68
Takeout Check Avg
$36
Competition Level
High
Brand Upside
Highest
Option B — Growth Market
Rochester / Roch. Hills
Median HHI
$85–95k
Avg Restaurant Lease
$18–24/sf
Dine-In Check Avg
$58
Takeout Check Avg
$30
Competition Level
Moderate
Brand Upside
Strong
Key Assumptions Where the two markets diverge
Annual Rent (2,400 sf)
$108k
$30/sf base + $15/sf NNN = $45/sf total
Annual Rent (2,400 sf)
$72k
$20/sf base + $10/sf NNN = $30/sf total
Avg Dine-In Check
$68
Premium market supports higher spend
Avg Dine-In Check
$58
Slightly more price-conscious demo
Daily Covers (Year 2)
90
Destination dining, lower volume to achieve
Daily Covers (Year 2)
100
Less competition, strong repeat local traffic
Daily Takeout Orders
30
Lower lunch foot traffic than Rochester
Daily Takeout Orders
40
Strong suburban lunch culture drives counter
Full Year P&L — Side by Side Base Case · Year 2
Birmingham
$2,360,340
| Revenue | |
| Dine-In Food (50%) | $1,080,540 |
| Dine-In Bar (50%) | $1,080,540 |
| Takeout Counter | $394,200 |
| Cost of Goods | |
| Food COGS (31%) | ($335,567) |
| Bar COGS (21%) | ($226,913) |
| Takeout COGS (29%) | ($114,318) |
| Gross Profit | $1,683,542 (71%) |
| Labor | |
| FOH — Dine-In | ($236,000) |
| BOH — Kitchen | ($218,000) |
| Counter Staff | ($72,800) |
| Occupancy & Overhead | |
| Rent + NNN (2,400sf) | ($108,000) |
| Utilities | ($56,000) |
| Insurance & Licensing | ($28,000) |
| Marketing & Social | ($42,000) |
| Repairs & Supplies | ($36,000) |
| Owner Salary | ($90,000) |
| SBA Debt Service | ($72,000) |
| EBITDA (pre-debt) | $196,742 (8.3%) |
| Net + Owner Comp | $214,742 |
Rochester
$2,210,200
| Revenue | |
| Dine-In Food (50%) | $944,650 |
| Dine-In Bar (50%) | $944,650 |
| Takeout Counter | $438,000 |
| Cost of Goods | |
| Food COGS (31%) | ($292,842) |
| Bar COGS (21%) | ($198,378) |
| Takeout COGS (29%) | ($127,020) |
| Gross Profit | $1,591,960 (72%) |
| Labor | |
| FOH — Dine-In | ($218,000) |
| BOH — Kitchen | ($200,000) |
| Counter Staff | ($78,000) |
| Occupancy & Overhead | |
| Rent + NNN (2,400sf) | ($72,000) |
| Utilities | ($52,000) |
| Insurance & Licensing | ($24,000) |
| Marketing & Social | ($36,000) |
| Repairs & Supplies | ($32,000) |
| Owner Salary | ($90,000) |
| SBA Debt Service | ($69,000) |
| EBITDA (pre-debt) | $253,960 (11.5%) |
| Net + Owner Comp | $274,960 |
Revenue Delta
BIR +$150k
Rent Delta (Annual)
BIR −$36k
EBITDA Delta
ROC +$57k
Owner Comp — Birmingham
$214k
Owner Comp — Rochester
$275k
EBITDA Margin
BIR 8% · ROC 11.5%
Side-by-Side Comparison Where each market wins
Financial Metrics · Year 2 Base Case
Total Annual Revenue
$2.36M
$2.21M
Annual Rent (all-in)
$108k
$72k
Rent as % of Revenue
4.6%
3.3%
EBITDA
$197k
$254k
Net Margin
5.3%
8.4%
Owner Total Comp
$214k
$275k
Business Valuation (3x EBITDA)
$591k
$762k
Qualitative Factors
Build-out Cost (existing kitchen)
$350–500k
$280–420k
Space Availability
Tight
Good
Competition for Concept
Higher
Lower
Lunch / Weekday Traffic
Moderate
Strong
Takeout Counter Potential
Good
Very Strong
Brand Prestige / PR Value
Highest
Strong
Path to Location 2
Opens doors
Faster cash flow
The Honest Verdict
Choose Birmingham if…
You can find a space with existing kitchen infrastructure to reduce build-out cost to $350k range
Your primary goal is building a brand with maximum press and prestige upside
You're comfortable with a Year 1 where owner comp may be $140–160k while the market warms to you
You want the concept to attract equity partners or franchise interest faster
You plan to open a Rochester or Royal Oak counter as Location 2 within 2 years
Choose Rochester if…
Hitting your $200–250k income target by Year 2 is the priority — Rochester gets you there faster
You want lower initial risk with a still-affluent, underserved market for this concept
The takeout counter is a serious business priority — Rochester lunch traffic is stronger
You want to prove the model cleanly before a Birmingham flagship or second location
Lower SBA loan requirement means less debt service pressure in Year 1
Bottom Line Recommendation
Rochester first. Birmingham next. That's the two-location strategy that hits your income target fastest and builds the brand properly.
Open Kiln in Rochester — lower rent, less competition, strong takeout culture, and you hit $250k+ owner comp in Year 2. Then open a Birmingham location in Year 3–4 as the brand flagship with the Rochester proof-of-concept behind you. By then you have the track record, the SBA relationship, and the operational systems to execute Birmingham at full premium. That's how you build a multi-location brand without betting everything on the hardest market first.