Kiln
Year 1 Complete P&L — Rochester Market — Every Variable Accounted For
Fully-Loaded Labor
All Overhead Categories
Ramp-Up Revenue Model
11 Previously Missing Cost Lines
Previously included in P&L
NEW Previously missing — now added
Revenue is ramp-adjusted. Year 1 isn't a full year at target capacity. Modeled as: Months 1–2 at 40 covers/day (soft open + ramp), Months 3–6 at 62/day, Months 7–12 at 74/day. Weighted average: 62 covers/day. This is realistic for a strong concept in a good suburb — not guaranteed.
Revenue Breakdown — Base Case
$1,514,000
Dine-In Food (48%)
$598,000
62 covers × 365 × $55 avg × 48%
Dine-In Bar (52%)
$648,000
1.5 drinks/cover avg — bar-forward model
Takeout Counter
$268,000
23 orders/day × 365 × $32 avg
Total Revenue
$1,514,000
Ramp-adjusted Year 1 target
Cost of Goods Sold% Rev($428,250)
Food COGS$598k food × 32% — brisket yield loss pushes this line12.6%($191,360)
Bar / Beverage COGS$648k bar × 22% — tallow chips & skewers keep this lean9.4%($142,560)
Takeout Food COGS$268k × 30% — sandos have healthy margin5.3%($80,400)
Packaging & Containers newBags, boxes, wax paper, stickers — $13,450 missed before0.9%($13,930)
Total COGS28.3%($428,250)
Gross Profit71.7%$1,085,750
Labor — All-In with Payroll Burden (13%)% Rev($567,100)
Owner / Operator$90k salary + $11.7k FICA/burden — you run the floor Year 16.7%($101,700)
Executive Chef$72k salary + $9.4k burden — working chef, runs BOH5.4%($81,360)
Lead Line Cook (FT)$23/hr × 40hrs × 52wks + 13% burden3.6%($54,060)
Line Cook 1 (FT)$19.50/hr × 40hrs + burden3.0%($45,830)
Line Cook 2 (PT)$19/hr × 24hrs — weekend & rush coverage1.8%($26,800)
Prep Cook (FT)$15.50/hr × 38hrs — tallow, brisket prep, brioche2.3%($34,610)
Dishwasher 1 (FT)MI min wage $13.73/hr × 40hrs + burden2.1%($32,270)
Dishwasher 2 (PT)$13.73/hr × 18hrs — busy shifts only1.0%($14,520)
Bartender 1 (FT tipped)Employer pays $6.50/hr direct + burden. Tips ~$35–50k/yr1.0%($14,510)
Bartender 2 (PT tipped)$6.50/hr × 22hrs — weekend bar support0.6%($8,400)
Server 1 (FT tipped)$5.49/hr × 35hrs — employer direct wage only0.7%($11,290)
Server 2 (PT tipped)$5.49/hr × 25hrs — lunch + some dinners0.5%($8,060)
Server 3 (PT tipped)$5.49/hr × 18hrs — weekend coverage0.4%($5,810)
Host (PT non-tipped)$14/hr × 20hrs — front door, reservations1.1%($16,450)
Food Runner (PT tipped)$5.49/hr × 16hrs — runs food, tip pool0.3%($5,160)
Counter Lead (FT)$17/hr × 40hrs — owns the counter channel2.6%($39,960)
Counter Staff 1 (FT)$15/hr × 32hrs — lunch focus1.9%($28,200)
Counter Staff 2 (PT)$15/hr × 20hrs — peak coverage1.2%($17,630)
Pre-Opening Payroll new2.5 weeks training before open — zero revenue generated1.0%($15,000)
Michigan Earned Sick Time new1hr per 30 worked — required by MI law for 10+ employees0.4%($5,500)
Total Labor (incl. owner salary, all burden)37.5%($567,100)
Occupancy% Rev($139,500)
Base Rent + NNNRochester 2,400sf — $20/sf base + $10/sf NNN4.8%($72,000)
Gas + ElectricCommercial kitchen, smoker, HVAC — $4,500/mo avg3.6%($54,000)
Water + Sewer newHigh-volume kitchen uses significant water — $350/mo0.3%($4,200)
Trash + Recycling newRestaurant trash volume is significant — $300/mo0.2%($3,600)
Snow Removal newMichigan winters — $250/mo Oct–Mar0.2%($3,000)
Pest Control newRequired monthly service — $125/mo0.1%($1,500)
Exterior Maintenance newParking lot, signage, minor exterior upkeep0.1%($1,200)
Total Occupancy9.2%($139,500)
Technology & Payment Processing% Rev($56,600)
Credit Card Processing (2.75%) new3rd largest restaurant expense — on $1.514M = $41,6002.7%($41,600)
POS System (Toast) newMonthly subscription — $450/mo covers both channels0.4%($5,400)
Reservation Platform (Resy) new$400/mo — essential for mid-high dining, manages waitlist0.3%($4,800)
Online Ordering Platform newDirect ordering for counter — $200/mo, avoids delivery app fees0.1%($2,400)
Internet + Wi-Fi newBusiness-grade, guest network — $200/mo0.1%($2,400)
Total Technology3.7%($56,600)
Professional Services% Rev($12,600)
CPA / BookkeeperMonthly bookkeeping $750 + year-end return $1,2000.7%($10,200)
Legal RetainerQuarterly check-in, lease review, employment questions0.2%($2,400)
Total Professional Services0.8%($12,600)
Insurance% Rev($14,400)
General LiabilityStandard restaurant GL — $500/mo0.4%($6,000)
Liquor Liability newRequired for bar program — separate from GL — $400/mo0.3%($4,800)
Business Owner's Policy newCovers equipment, property damage, business interruption0.2%($3,600)
Total Insurance1.0%($14,400)
Kitchen Operations & Compliance% Rev($8,600)
Hood Cleaning (quarterly) newRequired by Michigan law — 4× per year at $500/service0.1%($2,000)
Grease Trap Service (monthly) newCity requirement for commercial kitchen — $250/mo0.2%($3,000)
Equipment Maintenance Contracts newSmoker, refrigeration, fryers — $300/mo preventive0.2%($3,600)
Total Kitchen Operations0.6%($8,600)
Facility & Service Costs% Rev($17,100)
Linen + Uniform ServiceChef coats, aprons, towels — $250/mo0.2%($3,000)
Smallwares + BreakagePlates, glassware, utensils — ongoing replacement0.3%($4,000)
Cleaning SuppliesIndustrial sanitizers, chemicals — $350/mo0.3%($4,200)
Music Licensing (ASCAP+BMI+SESAC) newPlaying any music in a restaurant requires three licenses0.2%($3,500)
Bank Fees + Office Supplies newBusiness checking fees, printer ink, receipts — $100/mo0.1%($2,400)
Total Facility & Service1.1%($17,100)
Marketing & Brand% Rev($25,000)
Social Media + Content ToolsCanva, scheduling tools, in-house content creation0.4%($6,000)
Opening Photography + VideoEssential investment — food photography drives social reach0.3%($4,000)
Menu Printing (quarterly updates)Physical menus — quality matters for the brand0.2%($3,000)
Grand Opening EventPress, food influencers, media preview — one-time Year 10.2%($3,500)
Digital AdvertisingGoogle, Instagram — especially critical in ramp-up months0.4%($6,000)
Local PR + MiscMedia outreach, promotions, miscellaneous0.2%($2,500)
Total Marketing1.7%($25,000)
Contingency & Unexpected% Rev($22,000)
Emergency Repairs Budget newRefrigerator failure, plumbing, equipment breakdown — always happens Year 10.5%($7,500)
Operational Contingency (1% rev) newUnanticipated costs that every new restaurant encounters1.0%($14,500)
Total Contingency1.5%($22,000)
Debt Service% Rev($79,000)
SBA 7(a) Loan — P+I$500k @ 10% over 10 years — $6,583/mo principal + interest5.2%($79,000)
Total Debt Service5.2%($79,000)
Owner Year 1 Financial Picture — Base Case
Total Revenue$1,514,000
Total COGS($428,250)
Total Labor (incl. owner $90k salary)($567,100)
Occupancy($139,500)
Technology & Processing($56,600)
Professional Services($12,600)
Insurance($14,400)
Kitchen Operations($8,600)
Facility & Service($17,100)
Marketing & Brand($25,000)
Contingency($22,000)
SBA Debt Service($79,000)
Net Profit After All Costs$143,850
Owner salary (already paid, in labor)+ $90,000
Total Owner Year 1 Compensation
$233,850
Key Financial Metrics — Base Case
Gross Margin (after COGS)71.7%
Prime Cost (COGS + Labor)65.7%
Labor % of Revenue37.5%
Occupancy % of Revenue9.2%
Net Margin9.5%
EBITDA (pre-debt)$222,850 (14.7%)
Owner Total Comp$233,850 ✓
Breakeven Analysis
Break-even daily covers (with 23 takeout/day)~61/day
Break-even annual revenue~$1,368k
Your target (base) covers62/day ✓
Buffer above breakeven~$146k
Working capital needed (safety net)$75–100k
What Was Missing From The Original P&L — 11 Previously Uncounted Items
Credit Card Processing
$41,600
2.75% of revenue — 3rd largest restaurant cost
Payroll Burden (13%)
$67,800
FICA, SUTA, workers comp on all wages
Pre-Opening Payroll
$15,000
2.5 weeks training before any revenue
Technology Stack
$14,600
POS, reservation platform, online ordering, wifi
Packaging & Containers
$13,930
Takeout bags, boxes, branded materials
Kitchen Compliance
$8,600
Hood cleaning, grease trap, equipment maintenance
Water, Trash & Snow
$10,800
Utilities beyond gas/electric — all required
Liquor Liability Insurance
$4,800
Separate from GL — required for bar program
Music Licensing
$3,500
ASCAP + BMI + SESAC — legally required
Michigan Sick Leave Act
$5,500
1hr per 30 worked — required by state law
Contingency Reserve
$22,000
Unexpected repairs — always happens Year 1
Previously included in P&L
NEW Previously missing
Conservative ramp. Months 1–3 at 35 covers/day, Months 4–8 at 50/day, Months 9–12 at 65/day. Weighted average: 52 covers/day. This is the scenario where the concept takes longer to find its audience. The business runs at a net loss — working capital reserve is not optional.
Revenue Breakdown — Conservative Case
$1,203,000
Dine-In Food (48%)
$474,000
52 covers × 365 × $53 × 48%
Dine-In Bar (52%)
$514,000
Slower nights hurt bar volume more
Takeout Counter
$197,000
18 orders/day × 365 × $30
Total Revenue
$1,203,000
$311k below base — significant gap
Cost of Goods Sold% Rev($338,700)
Food COGS ($474k × 32%)Lower volume, similar food cost %12.6%($151,680)
Bar COGS ($514k × 22%)Bar is most volume-sensitive channel9.4%($113,080)
Takeout COGS ($197k × 30%)4.9%($59,100)
PackagingLower order volume0.8%($9,850)
Total COGS28.2%($333,710)
Gross Profit71.8%$869,290
Labor (lean — some PT hours reduced)% Rev($548,000)
Owner + EC (salaried — fixed)Salaried staff don't scale down with volume15.3%($183,060)
BOH Team (reduced PT hours)Line cook 2 and dish PT reduced — fewer covers12.9%($195,000)
FOH Team (fewer shifts scheduled)Server 3 and runner hours cut on slow nights4.2%($60,000)
Counter TeamCounter 2 hours reduced5.2%($79,000)
Pre-Opening + Sick LeaveFixed regardless of scenario1.7%($20,500)
⚠ Labor is 45.6% of revenue in conservative scenario — this is the danger zone for the business45.6%($548,000)
Total Labor45.6%($548,000)
All Overhead (most costs are fixed)% Rev($348,100)
Occupancy (fixed)Rent doesn't care about your cover count11.6%($139,500)
Credit Card Processing (2.75% × $1.203M)Variable — scales with revenue2.8%($33,100)
Technology (mostly fixed)POS, Resy, internet — same cost regardless1.2%($14,600)
Professional Services (fixed)CPA and legal don't scale down1.0%($12,600)
Insurance (fixed)Same premium regardless of revenue1.2%($14,400)
Kitchen Ops (fixed)Hood cleaning happens regardless0.7%($8,600)
Facility & ServiceSlightly lower with less volume1.3%($16,000)
Marketing (reduced)Lean year, reduce digital spend1.5%($18,000)
Contingency (reduced)1% of revenue1.0%($12,000)
SBA Debt Service (fixed)The bank gets paid regardless of your volume6.6%($79,000)
Total Overhead28.9%($347,800)
Owner Year 1 Financial Picture — Conservative
Total Revenue$1,203,000
COGS($333,710)
Labor (incl. owner $90k salary)($548,000)
All Overhead($347,800)
Net Operating Result($26,510) LOSS
Owner salary (paid from working capital)$90,000
Owner Real Year 1 Compensation
$63,490 effective
⚠ The business runs at a $26.5k loss. Your $90k salary is paid, but $26.5k is drawn from working capital. A $75–100k WC reserve in your SBA loan is the buffer that keeps you alive. Without it, you can't make payroll in Month 3.
Key Metrics — Conservative
Gross Margin71.8%
Prime Cost (COGS + Labor)73.7% ⚠
Labor % of Revenue45.6% ⚠
Net Margin–2.2% (loss)
Owner Effective Comp$63,490
WC Reserve Used~$26,500
The Critical Insight on Fixed vs. Variable Costs
Your variable costs (scales with revenue)~32%
Your fixed costs (same regardless of covers)~68%
Implication: Every cover above break-even+$38 profit
The gap from conservative to base (10 covers/day)+$138,700/yr